*** Update: Santos has decisively won the election. Read more by clicking here. ***

Just a few weeks ago it was considered quite likely that Colombia would elect the world's first "Green Party" president. Now that probability has decreased considerably.

While polls indicated a huge surge for Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus prior to the first round of voting, his mainstream rival Juan Manual Santos captured a much larger percentage of the vote. On May 30, Santos received 46.6% of the vote compared to 21.5% for Mockus. Other candidates kept Santos from gaining an outright majority, triggering a run-off between Santos and Mockus that is scheduled for this Sunday.

Mockus is a mathematician and philosophy professor who has also served several terms as mayor of Bogota, Colombia's capital city. His campaign has emphasized cleaning up corruption in government and job creation. His opponent Santos is a former defense minister with close ties to outgoing president Alvaro Uribe, whose pro-American administration has been successful at implementing policies to decrease crime, yet mired by several scandals and a weakening economy.

Recent polls suggest that Santos is now running away with the race. Each of the polls has him leading the race by a margin of about 65% to 28% over Mockus.

So what happened?

The Los Angeles Times suggests the following explanation:

Analysts, noting that polls had erroneously suggested a much closer race, said Mockus may have been judged too much of a novice on the national stage, even though his campaign resonated with Colombians weary of corruption and yearning for greater democracy and an emphasis on social programs... In the end, Santos was seen as the safer bet...

The Washington Post provides some further context:

once in the voting booth, more Colombians supported the candidate they perceived as the safe bet -- the man who would continue Uribe's popular policies, analysts said. Mockus, the son of Lithuanian immigrants and a two-time mayor of Bogota, lost all but one state and Bogota, which was considered his stronghold.

Colombian voters will decide the final outcome of the election on Sunday. Will the polls be wrong again? Check back on Ecopolitology for an update.

If you would like to learn more about the important issues in Colombia's election, the english language website Colombia Reports covered the highlights from the most recent presidential debate.

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Image Courtesy of lg.gomez on Flickr