Partially-submerged cars bring attention to the potential of flooding caused by global warming. (Photo: Akuppa)
Poll shows drop in concern about climate change in U.S., but waning concern may not be as sharp as it appears.
As world leaders descend on Copenhagen for the final days of the UN's COP15 climate summit, results of a new Zogby poll released today suggest that almost half of Americans--49%--say they are only slightly or not at all concerned about climate change, up from 39% in 2007. Conversely, the poll suggests that 35% of Americans are somewhat or highly concerned about global warming and climate change, down from 48% in 2007.
The results of the Zogby poll confirm the conclusions of other polls that American concern for climate change is declining while global concern is on the uptick. And the figures for Republicans are also in line with figures about Republican leadership; nearly three-quarters of U.S. Senate Republicans doubt the human causes of global warming.
But before we accept the results of the Zogby poll at face value, there are a couple methodological issues that should be raised.
December or June?
The 2007 survey was conducted between June 15-18 and polled 8,300 adults nationwide, producing a margin of error of 1.1%. But in 2009, the survey was conducted between December 8-10 and polled only of 3,072 adults nationwide, producing a margin of error of 1.8%. Other than the fact that it is generally warmer in North America in June than it is in December, June 2007 was 1.4° F above the 20th century average of 69.3° F.
Final temperature data for December is obviously not available yet but I'm pretty sure it was colder in December of 2009 than it was in June of 2007, or any year for that matter, just about everywhere in the U.S. While fluctuations in temperatures are poor indicators of long-term warming or cooling climate trends, they can definitely influence the average person's opinion--consciously or subconsciously--on global temperature trends, even if empirical data show otherwise.
Contaminating the sample?
Finally, the samples taken in the two polls also cannot be removed from the larger political context in which they were taken. Considering that some news outlets began reporting on 'Climategate' as the 'final nail in the coffin of anthropogenic global warming', the timing of the poll--just two weeks after the story of the controversial e-mails broke--snapped an image of public opinion when lots of claims are being made about the validity of the science or the data contained in the IPCC report.
In theory, public opinion is designed to capture the mood after such events, but I would argue that a more accurate portrayal of the impact of the Climategate e-mails cannot be made until the initial spark of its interest has expired.
Gauging public opinion is often like hitting a moving target and if we want to really understand the mood of the people, pollsters are better off trying to hit the target when it has stabilized after being jolted by what political scientists like to call an, 'external perturbation.'
So when you hear these numbers, or any other public opinion statistics for that matter, trumpeted around, keep in mind that the changing picture Zogby paints may not be as stark as it first appears.
Numbers don't always speak for themselves.
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Unbelievable! One of the many reasons why Americans overseas are forced to tell people that they are Canadian instead of American (when people find out were Americans were generally considered to be arrogant and idiots)!
Title – this is due to the ignored and scientifically logical fact that global climate change is not real, in the way we have been made to believe! yes, climate change is happening! It has happened throughout history…ex.- ice ages, warming periods, droughts, etc! Most of these periods were factually discovered to have happened way before man started producing green house gasses, emissions, etc! (except for breathing i guess, that counts as pollution right…lol) Anyway, the climate and earth naturally cycles, not based on human gas emissions, but based on the most influential affector we have….. THE SUN! Yes pollution is a great problem that needs addressed. And yes, human emissions are a problem also that play a miniscule part! The Sun ladies and gentleman is the guiding force that affects our earth more than anything else! All the Gore made graphs about climate levels being effected by CO2… are really exactly corresponding to the rise and fall of solar activity levels! Im sure there is very small percentage of climate leves based on volcanic factors, human productions, etc! BUT….research our suns activity and you will see! thats why the majority of scientists have been stepping out lately and refuting man made climate change! Yes majority, not just the assumed, under the table paid, fame seeking ones that will do anything gore and his money, false economy creating cronies would have you believe! Nothing Further, BJ.
bigjon-
Can you back up the claim that “the majority of scientists have been stepping out lately and refuting man made climate change” with a citation?
Looking forward to your reply.
Has anyone noticed that the entire eco-political/green movement is lead by a bunch of white people?
It evokes images of the 15th and 16th centuries when white explorers, followed closely by white missionaries, sought to educate and civilize the brown and black “savages” – turn them away from their crude, immoral, heathen ways. The elite, white “greens” of today also seek to educate and “save” the savages from themselves.
I also read your article “Poor Americans Most Willing to Sacrifice for Sake of Climate”:
“…are most likely to agree with the U.S. government trying to reduce energy use despite how it could impact their personal lifestyles…”
You mean like requiring federal workers to drive electric cars or reducing the amount of energy used by federal offices? How is the government reducing its energy use going to impact anyone’s lifestyle if they aren’t a government employee?
The conclusion: AGW alarmists and Greens = white people trying to tell the rest of the world how to live.
From a Mexican on the 49% side.
Not the “entire” green movement”: Van Jones, Steve Curwood, Lisa Perez Jackson all spring immediately to mind as prominent exceptions.
Also, the US government is not only trying to cut its energy use, but to encourage the country as a whole to reduce its energy use, e.g. with incentives for insulation and weather-stripping. President Obama has been touting plans to increase energy efficiency nation wide for quite some time – they were even part of the stimulus package.
Satellite temperature readings show no warming.
AGW religionists lie too boldly.
likwidshoe:
Satellite temperature readings show no warming? Try running your numbers by NOAA’s that definitely do show warming.
And I’m not even sure what/who you are referring to when you write, “AGW religionists lie too boldly.” I’m trying to see how the comment is relevant to the post an I’m having some trouble doing so.
Love your blog, it’s all so pretty.